Business confidence in construction rebounds from all-time record low

According to Rosstat, in Q1 2019 the construction industry’s business confidence index rebounded 4.5 percentage points from the lowest level in at least thirteen years observed in Q4 2018. In the first quarter of 2019, the index was 1.5 p.p. higher than the level observed for the corresponding quarter a year before: -20.0% in Q1 2019, as opposed to -21.5% in Q1 2018.

Among the positive trends observed during Q1 2019 was an increase in the number of companies reporting growth in the number of new contracts (14.5% of all of those surveyed, above the figure of 10.3% seen in Q1 2018). In addition, in Q1 2019, the number of respondents who reported a reduction in the number of contracts dropped to 29%, down from 32% in the corresponding quarter a year before.

However, a negative trend observed in Q1 2019 was a reduction in the volume of construction output. Regardless of the recovery in economic growth, though only around 2.3% y-o-y, only 13.6% of the companies surveyed succeeded in boosting their construction output (12.8% in Q1 2018). However, the proportion of those reporting a reduction in construction output reached 44.7% in Q1 2019, 1.4 p.p. more than the figure for the corresponding period a year before.